For the first time in four years, UC leaders are proposing tuition increases as much as 5% in each of the next five years to help cover rising costs and to expand the enrollment of California students.

UC needs more money to help cover the rising costs of retirement benefits, fund recent pay increases in employee contract settlements, hire more faculty, and raise the number of California undergraduates by 5,000 over five years from the current 166,250, according to the proposal being formally released Thursday.

The proposed tuition increase would take effect during 2015-16. If fully implemented, annual tuition for a California resident would increase from the current $12,192 to an estimated $15,563 in 2019-20. Out-of-state students would pay $36,828 next year, and up to $44,766 by 2019-20 under the plan.

Given all those pressures and goals, a tuition freeze could not continue into a fourth year, UC system President Janet Napolitano said.

Napolitano said tuition increases could be reduced or even eliminated in all or some of the years if state funding for UC rises above the 4% annual increases currently anticipated. However, a major hurdle is the opposition from Governor Jerry Brown, who objects to the increases.

The proposed series of 5% increases “is the worst-case scenario for California students and their families, but it is a very predictable scenario,” Napolitano says.

The proposal is scheduled to be debated and voted on by the UC regents at their November 19-20 meeting in San Francisco; a gathering that could attract sizable student protests if history is repeated. Key regents said they expect the board will approve the plan.

The proposal is sure to face some student opposition. Even before Napolitano’s plan was detailed, the UC Student Association last week began a petition drive asking the regents to continue the freeze or to reduce tuition. “We have the right to seek long-term, sustainable funding sources that take the burden off students, and not only freeze tuition, but roll back tuition,” the online petition said.

Including various campus charges, room, board and books, the annual cost of a UC education now can total more than $30,000 for California residents; the growing number of students from other states and nations pay about $23,000 in addition to that.

      However, officials note that only about 30% of UC undergraduates from California will pay the full amount of their current $12,192 tuition. Less than one-third of students pay full price for a UC education, with 55 percent paying nothing at all because of financial aid.